Anomalous subsidence in the upper layers is extending from the South China Sea to the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Good agreement among two filtering products (Fig.S3-1). At 850hPa, anomalous divergence covers all the MC.

Figure 2 shows a combination of PW and 850 wind anomaly. A dry, easterly anomaly extends from the Philippines to southern Vietnam and southern Thailand. A moist anomaly covers most of Indonesia and Papua-New-Guinea (Fig.22), with a westerly anomaly from the Java Sea to PNG, which contributes to stronger than normal monsoonal winds.

In OLR, the passed 90 days total anomaly follows the El Nino response, plus a remnant of +IOD (Fig.3). The observed trend is a weakening positive anomaly over the MC, and a negative anomaly extending above northeastern PNG.