Forecast Maps
Maps showing the ensemble mean of the 51 members of the D-D+45 forecast of the ECMWF model produced with the Monday of the week initialisation. Different types of maps are available depending on the parameter chosen:
Map of raw fields, anomalies or % of the climatology for the PR and PW parameters
Rainfall maps (PR mm/d) and precipitable water (PW, mm) for weeks 1 to 6 available for different types:
- Type=Brut: Raw PR and PW predicted parameters. The green outline indicates iso 40, 45 and 50 mm for PW.
- Type=Anomalie: Predicted anomalies in PR and PW relative to the hindcast (overall average of the 11 members over the reforecast period). The reforecast period acts as a 'model' climatology over the last 20 years, and allows us to debias at 1st order.
- Normalised: Normalised raw fields of PR (%) and PW (%) normalised by the hindcast of the model. Example available here. A value of 100% indicates a parameter equal to the climatology, a value > 100% (green, blue) indicate that PR or PW is greater than the climatological value of the model. Values < 100% (yellow, red) indicate a drier phase than the climatology.
- The equivalent of these maps based on observations is available in the evaluation section here.
Anomaly map and equatorial wave contributions:
Panel of maps showing the weekly averages of observations (Analysis, left) and forecasts from S1 to S6 (right). The coloured areas indicate the intraseasonal anomaly of the parameter in question. The contours correspond to the positive contribution (solid line) of each equatorial wave, except for the MJO and the low frequency, for which the negative phases are shown. These maps are the weekly and sub-seasonal equivalent of the wave decomposition maps produced with the deterministic forecast.
- PW: PW anomaly (wet/dry in red/blue). The contours correspond to the wet contributions (solid line) of each equatorial wave except for the MJO and the low frequency (low) for which the dry phases are also represented.
- Uwind-850: Westerly / Easterly wind anomaly at 850 hPa (in red / blue). The contours correspond to the positive contribution (from the west, solid line) of each equatorial wave except for the MJO and the low frequency (low) for which the east phases are also represented.
- Vwind-850: Southerly / Northerly wind anomaly at 850 hPa (in red / blue). The contours correspond to the positive contribution (from the south, solid line) of each equatorial wave except for the MJO and the low frequency (low) for which the north phases are also represented.